Byelections big test for Dion

Published Wednesday July 23rd, 2008
A7

OTTAWA - Three federal byelections in early September promise to stir up Canada's stagnant political waters, serving as a litmus test for a possible general election this autumn.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper is expected to call the byelections this week in the Montreal-area ridings of Westmount-Ville Marie and St. Lambert and the southwestern Ontario riding of Guelph.

Opposition parties expect the vote in the three ridings will be held Sept. 8 but Conservative insiders suggest Harper may opt for Sept. 2, the earliest possible date.

The Westmount byelection must be called by Saturday under Elections Canada rules, but sources say the three vacancies will be bundled together.

The byelections will give all parties a chance to move the political dial, which has barely budged for the last two years.

Despite various apparent setbacks and triumphs for each, national public opinion polls suggest Harper's Conservatives remain virtually tied with Stephane Dion's Liberals, both with tepid levels of support well short of what would be needed to win a majority.

However, the stakes are highest for the Liberals, who won two of the three ridings - Westmount and Guelph - in the 2006 election. The Bloc Quebecois won St. Lambert.

Dion has been spending the summer trying to sell voters, already hard hit by record-high gas prices and a weakening economy, on the merits of his risky proposal to impose a carbon tax, offset by cuts in personal and corporate income tax.

The byelections will test not just his sales job but his judgment in making the so-called green shift plan the centrepiece of the Liberal platform for the next election.

Moreover, they'll test whether Dion has managed to solidify his fragile grip on the reins of his party after suffering embarrassing losses in two previous sets of byelections.

"They're important, sure, and we're treating them accordingly," said Senator David Smith, co-chairman of the national Liberal campaign team.

While Dion has won kudos for having the courage of his environmental convictions, the substance of his green shift plan has received mixed reviews from provinces.

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